Negative Returns In Retirement: Draw Down
Retirement, time to sit back relax and enjoy life. Wait for many people retirement will last 30+ years. This often means needing equities in a portfolio, riskier assets...Relax again you have an asset allocation designed to generate the needed returns, balancing risk, to get you through retirement. Wait what if when you go to generate needed income from your investments and the market is in a downward trend, multiplying the effect of the downward pressure on your portfolio...Can this significantly reduce your ability to achieve your retirement income goals because now you have less working toward those goals?
Positive returns over loner periods of time for a portfolio although very important often do not show the truth of how generating returns effect a persons ability to use their money and meet their real goals of a specific lifestyle. Yes you will here that the stock market averages a certain rate of return annually, 7% or 8% or..., and that over time history has shown us stocks will go up and we can plan based off of these potential returns. This is true for most assets. The problem with this thinking while in retirement is understanding that most assets do not generate these returns in a "sequential" fashion. Meaning that although the market may historically return any given rate of return over time the course that those returns take are not predictable and reliable.
This was particularly on display for many investors nearing or in retirement in the 20008 to 2010 period. Recently in an article I read online written by a wise advisor, this concept was well articulated by using a rain fall analogy. I being a skier will give one using snow fall....
My favorite ski resort advertises a long season typically starting in early November and running all the way through the end of June and often as far as the 4th of July. They also boast about 400+ inches of seasonal snow fall...Wow...50 inches of snow per month not bad, 4 feet of snow each month no wonder they can make it to July often. Wait, there are years they close early and often the conditions are lousy. Why? The answer is that 200+ inches has fallen in any given month of the season at a time and some months there is none. This can make for a tough season especially those of us who travel 5+ hours to get there on the weekends when we have the time during the season. Would be nice to be able to enjoy the powder when it falls. Alas I cherish the days I get when their is fresh powder. I have gone seasons with out it!
Now back to the point of investing, retirement and understanding the need to manage for downward returns...
While in retirement it is good to invest at least some portion of your retirement assets in investments or with investment managers that have a mandate of minimizing the effect of the decline of the asset(s).
Understanding the concept of maximum draw down and using strategies and managers that seek to minimize the effect of this on a portfolio of investments can be extremely important for investors nearing or in retirement. You need your assets to last. Looking at managing the depth of your portfolios downward performance can greatly enhance the potential of your meeting your true investment goals, which are to live the lifestyle you want or can for as long as you can.
Selecting the right bonds, mutual fund managers, ETF's, Separately Manged Account Managers or using sophisticated options strategies to structure a portfolio in order to help minimize draw downs can limit upside but it can also help with making sure the portfolio is less depleted in a down market when income generation is needed.